datarich(ard)

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29 September 2020

US election 2020

by datarich(ard)

Inspired by this post on visualizing uncertainty, I present the 538 election forecast for 2020 as a dartboard.

Currently 538 gives Biden a 78 in 100 chance of winning the electoral college (and Trump a 22 in 100 chance). To represent the uncertainty in that outcome, imagine throwing a dart at any of the dartboards below. How many times would you hit blue vs red?

dartboard


The amount of confidence you have the dart would hit a blue square represents the confidence you should have in a Biden victory.

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